One thing we learned from 2020 is that it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (Danish physicist Niels Bohr’s words from 1971 still ring true.) Still, the world doesn’t stand still, and project managers need to keep looking ahead. That’s the whole purpose of a project controls function: to produce information that helps us make decisions about the future.

In many respects, project plans (schedules, budgets, etc.) are similar to economic forecasts. For decades, both have been used to make predictions more academically rigorous through mathematical techniques. The problem is these models are suited to the stationary physical world, where everything that happens is governed by the unchanging laws of physics—or to games of chance, in which the probability of something happening can be calculated fairly easily and accurately. They do not neatly apply to the intricacies of a dynamic project or economy.

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